Nick Carter has some trepidation when making tennis predictions. Nevertheless, he is not lacking in bravery and has taken on the task from a slightly different angle.
The temptation when doing a WTA 2025 season preview is to go straight into predictions mode. The
problem with this is that the tennis landscape can change very quickly.
Who would have thought in 2024 that Elena Rybakina would only be a contender at one major that season and fail to win it, or that Barbora Krejcikova would find the form she needed to lift the Wimbledon trophy the Kazakh was so heavily backed to win.
Doing these previews involves a lot of assumed expectations of the players. One interesting parasocial relationship fans often have with players is a sort of faux-shareholder or even employer.
The way we talk about expected performance can often be black and white, and often not stated, other than that players should be able to match their previous highs on a more regular basis. Having watched more and more tennis, not only is this not really realistic but also not how things work in the real world. Instead, we should look at what their recent consistent base results are.
Key Performance Indicators
Those who have worked in any kind of business environment may have heard of “KPI” or “Key Performance Indicator.” These are set standards that organisations measure overall success in relation to the quality of work their employees produce.
Tennis players set goals for themselves, but rarely reveal what they are. So, any goals that fans set for their favourite players will be from the data they have, which is black and white results.
This 2025 preview uses goals as the barometer to judge players. Now if we were to do this in the corporate world, performance indicators should be broken down into two categories: minimum expectations and stretch goals. Each of the leading names in tennis as of the end of 2024 will have a minimum expectation and a stretch goal aligned to them for the upcoming season.
Aryna Sabalenka
Minimum Expectation: Qualify for the WTA Finals
Stretch Goal: Win Australian Open and Wimbledon
Aryna Sabalenka’s minimum expectations are based partly on her qualifying for the WTA Finals the
last four seasons (2021-2024). Even since she stepped up her level after fixing her service motion, the level of consistent deep runs she has had at big tournaments is only comparable to Iga Swiatek. I would expect that to continue going into this season, and the points yielded in that scenario would be enough for her to make the WTA Finals for a fifth consecutive year.
As for Sabalenka’s stretch goal, winning majors should always be seen as something ambitious rather than standard. However, winning a third consecutive Australian Open, whilst historic, is less likely to be a challenge
for her compared to the other three major trophies, given how comfortable she is on the Australian hard
courts. Wimbledon would be a different story. Sabalenka’s game is well suited for grass and she has
been somewhat unfortunate not to have already lifted the Venus Rosewater dish. In the last four years
she has either reached the semi-finals and lost to a peaking opponent (Pliskova and Ons Jabeur) or has
not been able to compete at all. The 2024 Wimbledon was a huge missed opportunity as, had she not been injured, she would have very likely won the title given how the draw played out. But winning a significant trophy always carries nerves and if her rivals perform, getting the job done at Wimbledon is likely to be a huge challenge.
Iga Swiatek
Minimum Expectation: Qualify for the WTA Finals
Stretch Goal: Win Roland Garros and one other Major
Iga Swiatek has a similar minimum standard to Sabalenka. Like her Belarusian rival, Swiatek has qualified for the last four editions of the WTA Finals so there is a sense that her playing the 2025 edition would be the norm. However, I actually set Swiatek’s minimum expectation before Sabalenka’s, and originally this was based on her performance across the last three seasons. Swiatek has made the semi-final stage of eight ‘big’ tournaments each year from 2022 onwards. In this case, ‘big’ tournaments refer to major championships, WTA 1000 events, the Olympics, and the WTA Finals. The points she would get from repeating this yet again in 2025 would be enough to see her in the season finale and it is not unreasonable to think this kind of year is repeatable for her.
Where Swiatek may want to push herself is her performances at the non-clay majors. Outside of Roland Garros, her best major run since sealing the US Open title in September 2022 has been reaching the Quarter-Finals of Wimbledon in 2023 and reaching the same stage of the US Open in 2024. If she wants to return to the undisputed number one in the game, she not only needs to maintain her grip on the Roland Garros trophy but also claim one of the other three major titles. Given she has made the quarter-finals of all the Slams, she has to be seen as realistic title contender for every major she plays in 2025.
Will Swiatek win more than one major in 2025?
Yes
No
Coco Gauff
Minimum Expectation: Qualify for the WTA Finals
Stretch Goal: Win a Major
You might be wondering why the minimum expectations for Coco Gauff are the same as Aryna
Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek. The reason is to do with Gauff’s performance in 2024 specifically. In
2023, Gauff had a run of being the best player on tour overall during the US Hardcourt season but
did not really look like that again other than towards the very end of the 2023 season. But in 2024, Gauff was
racking up match wins throughout the year. Even before she started to peak again in Asia, she was on track to make the WTA Finals. If that is her current base level, qualifying for the season finale for a fourth consecutive year should not be a problem for her.
The question is, however, whether she can win another major in 2025. The American has shown she has the level within her to do so over the last couple of years and that is what she will be aiming for. Given she has shown strong results across all of the four majors, targeting a specific one is not needed.
Where will Coco Gauff be ranked come the end of 2025?
No.1
No.2
No.3
No.4
Jasmine Paolini
Minimum Expectation: Top 20 Ranking by Year End
Stretch Goal: Win a Major in Singles or Doubles
Jasmine Paolini has demonstrated one of the biggest improvements seen in any player over the
course of the 2024 season. She has gone from being a solid Top 50 player to cracking the top 4, winning a WTA 1000 event, reaching two major finals, and leading her country to Billie Jean King Cup glory, on top of establishing herself as one of the best doubles players on the planet. It is difficult to see this as something repeatable, although she could plausibly do so.
Given Paolini has reached two major finals back-to-back, it will definitely be her aim to finally go all the way and this would be a reasonable stretch goal for her. Doubles may be her best avenue for achieving this but even then it is a highly competitive field at the top of this discipline of tennis.
Paolini’s minimum expectation is hard to set. A Top 20 ranking seems like a reasonable compromise, as she is unlikely to fall all the way back to her previous mean but may struggle to go as deep in big tournaments as she did in some 2024 events.
Zheng Qinwen
Minimum Expectation: Top 10 Ranking by Year End
Stretch Goal: Top 4 Ranking by Year End
Zheng Qinwen is in the enviable position of being a young player who has steadily improved every year since she turned pro. Since ending 2022 ranked 25 in the world, she has risen 10 places in the standings each season and unlocked new milestones each time.
The question now is whether Zheng can consolidate her position given a further rise may be her biggest challenge yet, having to fight with established contenders Sabalenka, Swiatek, Gauff and Rybakina. That has to be her stretch goal if she wants to maintain this rate of improvement, although it may be the toughest of any on the list and would likely involve her having to win her first major title.
As for her minimum expectation, Zheng needs to consolidate the ground she has made. However, staying Top 5 may be a huge challenge, although it is conceivable she could be ranked best of the rest behind Sabalenka, Swiatek, Gauff and Rybakina. Given Top 10 is a significant milestone, this is perhaps the most flexible fall back.
Elena Rybakina
Minimum Expectation: Qualify for the WTA Finals
Stretch Goal: Win a Major Title
Elena Rybakina is a player with a significant upside to her game, which has been clear to see over the
last three seasons. She has been a contender for big titles of 1000 level and above and a genuine rival to
tour leaders Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek.
Rybakina is overdue a major title given how she has been in a prime position to win one or two since Wimbledon 2022 so this has to be a goal for her this upcoming season.
Getting an idea of a baseline for Rybakina is difficult, though, given that her 2022 ranking was held back by Wimbledon not counting for points and she was only really a factor for half of the 2024 season. Nevertheless, she still managed to make the WTA Finals last season and in her Wimbledon winning year she should have been at Fort Worth but quirks with rules and rankings prevented this. So, it seems reasonable to think that her base level of results should be enough for a return to Riyadh in 2025.
Jessica Pegula
Minimum Expectation: Top 30 ranking by year end
Stretch Goal: Win a Major Title
It might seem weird to have such a low expectation for Jessica Pegula going into 2025 given how she
has consistently qualified for the WTA Finals since 2022 and how she finally reached a major final at the most recent attempt.
Pegula’s 2024 points yield was mostly gathered during the US Hardcourt swing where she was arguably only bettered by Sabalenka. If she had not performed at that level, she would be currently fighting to still be seeded at majors. This suggests a new base level she may be operating at in 2025, especially if she continues to struggle with injuries.
Pegula will also be hoping to be fit enough to have a crack at another major title, given how she performed at the recent US Open. She acquitted herself very well in the final in New York, where she was unlucky not to force a third set. With that in mind, the dream of lifting a Grand Slam trophy is still bright enough to chase.
Emma Navarro
Minimum Expectation: Top 20 ranking by year end
Stretch Goal: Qualify for the WTA Finals
Emma Navarro is still a young player who is establishing herself on tour. She made good on the promise she was showing going into the 2024 season by continuing to rack up match wins and rise up the rankings.
It is difficult to read what is her base level and what is her peak, though. If I go along the lines of what her results suggest, Top 20 is a reasonable minimum expectation given she frequently finds herself around the Last 16 of big tournaments.
Qualifying for the WTA Finals is probably going to be Navarro’s next obvious big step. She fell just short in 2024 and so actually making it this time would be very satisfying, as well as consolidating the progress she has made.
Barbora Krejcikova
Minimum Expectation: Top 10 Ranking by year end
Stretch Goal: Win a Major Title
Barbora Krejcikova, when fit, is one of the best players in the world. The fact she was still coming
back from time away from court when she won Wimbledon last year is incredible. She has been
ranked in the top 10 three out of the last four seasons and the only one where she was not (2022),
she was heavily impacted by injury.
If Krejcikova stays fit, she belongs in the Top 10 in the world.
In terms of reaching for the stars, Krejcikova probably needs to keep focusing on the majors. Winning a WTA 1000 would also be a challenge but getting a third major would have a huge impact on the legacy she will leave behind as a player. She will be going to Wimbledon hoping to be the first woman to defend a singles title since Serena Williams in 2016 - that would be a massive achievement.
Diana Shnaider
Minimum Expectation: Top 20 Ranking by year end
Stretch Goal: Top 10 Ranking by year end
Diana Shnaider is another player who is breaking through on the WTA Tour, having had a really
strong 2024 season in only her second full year as a pro. She will be looking to at least stay in the top
20 and consolidate her progress, and there is no reason to suggest this is not her base level.
Shnaider will also be looking to make the next step and the obvious one is to break the Top 10 for
the first time.
Jelena Ostapenko
Minimum Expectation: Top 20 Singles Ranking by year end
Stretch Goal: Win a Major Title in either Singles or Doubles
Jelena Ostapenko has the reputation of being one of the most unpredictable players on tour. She
can catch fire and storm her way to titles or she can crash out unexpectedly early. Despite this, she
has consistently found herself ranked in the Top 20 the last three years and has won at least one
title a year the last four.
The Latvian still in the late prime period of her career, so its reasonable to expect that this kind of form will continue in 2025.
For her stretch goal, Ostapenko should look to winning a major given she has won one before, but it is coming up to eight years since she stunned Simona Halep at Roland Garros. Her partnership with Hsieh Su-Wei for 2025 suggests she has her sights set on continued doubles success, after winning her first major in the discipline at the US Open. So, her goal should be expanded to include doubles.
Mirra Andreeva
Minimum Expectation: Top 20 Singles Ranking by year end
Stretch Goal: Top 10 ranking in either singles or doubles by year end
Mirra Andreeva is currently the most precocious talent on the WTA Tour, already ranked in the top
20 by the age of 17.
Setting a stretch goal is more of a challenge because being too conservative may not reflect the talent that she has, but it seems too soon to aim for a major title (although the partnership with Shnaider in doubles may well yield this).
Comparing Andreeva’s progress with another precocious talent from recent years, Coco Gauff, might well be a useful guide. In 2021, Gauff’s year end ranking aged 17 was 22, with a win-loss record of 34-16 (68%-win rate) and one singles title. In 2024, Andreeva’s year end ranking aged 17 was 16, with a win-loss record of 34-16 (68%-win rate) and one singles title. So, they are pretty close. The differentiating factor in their ranking being that Andreeva has now reached a major semi-final whereas Gauff had yet to achieve this at the equivalent point.
Looking at Gauff’s following season as an 18-year-old, she broke into the top ten and made it to her first major singles final. However, she had a slightly lower win percentage (62%) and did not win any singles titles, though she was very successful on the doubles circuit. Andreeva seems to be setting herself up for something similar so her ambitions need to shift into focusing on making that step into the top ten, but a good doubles season would also be an important move in developing her game.
Karolina Muchova
Minimum Expectation: Top 30 Ranking by the end of year
Stretch Goal: Win a WTA Title
Karolina Muchova managed to score enough ranking points to launch herself almost into the Top 20
in the year end standings in just half a season.
Maintaining a Top 30 position should be the minimum expectation. If she were to go backwards, it would be a sign either of loss of performance or injuries continuing to take their toll on her.
If Muchova is healthy, though, she can regain her place in the top ten. Her mind may well be on finally winning another WTA singles title, adding to her one WTA Tour title earned at the 2019 Korea Open. If she is to do so, the Czech will have to reverse a trend which has seen her lose her last four finals, including the Beijing final against Coco Gauff in October 2024.
Emma Raducanu
Minimum Expectation: Top 50 Ranking by the end of the year
Stretch Goal: Win a WTA Title
2024 was the closest we have seen to the magic Emma Raducanu showed when she burst onto the
scene in 2021. Injuries and poor coaching choices have held her back until now, but her will to win
has never been in doubt.
Raducanu only played four events after the 2024 Wimbledon. It is clear she sees herself as belonging in the top 50 and a year where she is not back there is going to be sub-par.
For a stretch goal, it has to be a WTA title of any level, just to confirm that the Brit still retains the champion qualities she showed during that legendary US Open run in 2021.
Naomi Osaka
Minimum Expectation: Top 50 Ranking by the end of the year
Stretch Goal: Win a WTA Title
This is the toughest name on the list to assess. Naomi Osaka is a four-time major champion and has
won all four of her Slam titles in barnstorming fashion. Her top level is world beating. However, the last
time she won a major was 2021, and has been on maternity leave since then (missing the entire 2023 season).
Osaka finished 2024 ranked 58 in the world, but is going into 2025 starting a new coaching partnership with Patrick Mouratoglou. Typically, a minimum expectation is about consolidating expected form or previous placement, but Osaka does not want to be ranked 58 and that number does not reflect where a player of her calibre should be. An early step forward will be to break back into the Top 50.
The real goal for Osaka, though, should be winning another career title, not necessarily a major, although that will be the ultimate hope. She has not lifted a trophy since she won the 2021 Australian Open and a title at any level 250 or above would be a sign of significant progress.
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